What To Watch For: Mavs vs. Knicks

Tonight’s game is going to be a real test for the Mavs, but not in the way a game against the Warriors or Raptors, two upcoming opponents, will be.

Monday’s loss to the Pacers showed once again that no team in the league can be taken lightly, even if that team is missing its five top players from the year before. Dallas players used the word “embarrassing” to describe the loss after the game.

Well, here’s the Mavs’ chance to make things right, because the Knicks will likely be without superstar forward Carmelo Anthony, listed as doubtful after suffering back spasms two days ago. This league is full of crazy, coincidental occurrences that immediately make you remember the game before when all you’re trying to do is forget about it. If the Pacers were depleted, the Knicks are in even worse shape without Anthony.

The Mavs got into trouble early on against the Pacers, allowing them to hang around and score in bunches in the first quarter or two. Dallas must look to jump on the shorthanded Knicks tonight and leave little doubt who the better team is. Like I said, it’s a test, and we’re about to see if the Mavs will pass.

On paper, the Mavs should be able to get whatever they want against the Knicks. But it’s never that easy. Iman Shumpert is the team’s best perimeter defender, and he’ll likely be the one who defends Monta Ellis. The 6′ 5″ Shumpert is the type of player who matches up well with the speedy but smaller Ellis, as he can use his length and size to stay in front of him. Mavs big men will need to set quality screens to take the New York 2-guard out of the play so Ellis has an open driving lane to the rim.

You’ll recognize a few other faces on this roster. Manning the middle is former Mav Sam Dalembert, who’s started all 15 games for the Knicks this season. Dalembert blocks 1.4 shots in just 17.4 minutes per game this season. It’s unusual to see a starting player’s minutes so low, but he’s played three single-digit minute games in 2014-15.

The Knicks’ point guards are also familiar. Jose Calderon and Shane Larkin, who joined Dalembert in the trade that netted Tyson Chandler in Dallas, have started a combined 14 games for New York. Larkin averages 5.7 points and 1.4 steals per game and actually matches up very well with Jameer Nelson and JJ Barea, as all players are smaller, quick guys. Current Mav and former Knick Raymond Felton might even make his season debut, which makes this revenge game all the juicier. The Mavs must take advantage of Calderon, however. The Spaniard is an unbelievable shooter, but he doesn’t have the speed on the outside to keep up with Nelson, Barea, and Devin Harris.

Quincy Acy has been starting at power forward lately for New York and Amar’e Stoudemire comes off the bench. Both will defend Dirk Nowitzki. Acy is a big, bulky defender and rebounder, but Nowitzki should have the upper hand in the matchup. Meanwhile, Dirk and Stoudemire have had so many classic battles over the years that you just never know what to expect when those guys do battle.

Throw out any existing Knicks gameplan if Melo is injured, because New York will be a different team with different strengths. However, you still know the system they’ll play. That will never change.

First-year head coach Derek Fisher installed the Triangle offense upon arrival in New York. It’s a great system that’s won a lot of championships over the years, but like every offense, it needs a go-to option. Anthony was that guy. Without him, the Knicks will need to look in several different places for offense.

Fortunately for the Mavs coaching staff, they already know strengths and weaknesses of so many of these guys. Jose Calderon is a terrific shooter, so don’t let him breathe. Shane Larkin is quick off the dribble, so respect his speed and stay in front of him. Sam Dalembert has touch from 17, so force him to put the ball on the floor or pass out.

With no Anthony, the Knicks’ primary scoring options will be Stoudemire, Iman Shumpert, and JR Smith. Each of those three average double-figures, but none scores more than 11.7 points per game. At least two of them will need to score well above their average to make up for the scoring void left by Carmelo’s absence.

You might think, then, that Dallas can keep the Knicks in the 80s just like that. However, that wasn’t the case Monday against Indiana. Depleted teams in this league are desperate, and desperate teams are dangerous. It will be important for Dallas to strike early and strike hard. If the Mavs can dictate the came from the get-go, New York simply won’t have the firepower to stay in it. However, if the Knicks can take a lead into the second quarter, they’ll start believing. That’s exactly what you don’t want to have happen.

On paper, the Mavs are better. Heck, on the court the Mavs will probably be better. But “probably” doesn’t win you games. Every player in the locker room would tell you the same thing after what happened Monday night. I expect we’ll see a hungry, angry Mavs team tonight. If we do, we could be in for a heck of a performance. If not, it’s going to be another dogfight.