What To Watch For: Mavs at Pistons

It’s amazing how good this team looks when the threes are falling, huh? Dallas hit 15-of-33 from behind the arc last night against the New York Knicks, the fourth time all season the Mavs have reached at least that mark, per Basketball-Reference. Dallas is 3-1 in those games.

Dallas has the ball-handling and spacing ability to generate a good look at a three on almost every possession, so if the Mavericks get hot, it’s nearly impossible to beat them. That’s exactly what happened yesterday, and it’s something the club will hope to replicate against the Detroit Pistons.

Even beyond the statistics the Pistons are still a dangerous team. This is a club that grabbed a road win against Phoenix last Friday and another win at Sacramento the night after. Those games came a week after Detroit lost back-to-back games in overtime before losing to OKC by two. A 5-20 record looks bad on paper, but this is a club that is completely capable of keeping games close. Elsewhere during the season, Detroit has lost to the Clippers by six, the Suns by two, the Wizards (on the road) by four, and the Grizzlies (on the road) by just seven. They’ve played well against the best teams in the league, so Dallas must be on its guard.

This is the sixth back-to-back of the season for Dallas. So far this season, the Mavs are 4-1 on second nights of a back-to-back, and that includes multiple games in which Dirk Nowitzki didn’t suit up. Whether or not he’ll play tonight is still up in the air, though based on his light workload in New York last night, I’ll bet we’ll see Dirk out there. What will it take for Dallas to get to 5-1 and win No. 19?

It’s a good thing that the Mavs were so red-hot from deep last night. The Pistons allow opponents to shoot 42.4 percent from 20-24 feet and 35.2 percent from 25-29 feet. The first number ranks 29th in the league, while the second ranks 21st. The Pistons surrender 8.3 threes per game; only eight teams allow more. Dallas must capitalize on this tonight — if there’s any magic left over from last night, the Mavs are in good shape.

Manning the middle for the Pistons is center Andre Drummond, one of the best rebounders in basketball. Drummond also defends well at the rim, holding opponents to just 48.7 percent shooting on 8.0 attempts per game, per SportVU. Anything below 50 is excellent. The young big also swats 1.7 blocks per game, tied for 10th in the NBA. He’s an exciting player, and he matches it with ability.

Generally speaking, though, the Mavericks should be able to generate plenty of offense tonight. The Pistons defense isn’t poor by most standards, but the Mavs offense is just that good. It all comes down to whether or not Dallas can knock down threes: The Mavericks are 13-3 this season when they hit at least one-third of their three-pointers, according to Basketball-Reference.

The Pistons have struggled from beyond the arc this season, although they’ve recently received a bit of a boost. Jodie Meeks, who signed with Detroit in the offseason, recently returned from an injury that had sidelined him the entire season. He shot 40.1 percent from deep for the Lakers last season and hasn’t shot below 35.7 percent since his rookie season in 2009-10. You’ve got to contain Meeks.

Otherwise, Detroit isn’t a threatening team from behind the line, shooting just 32.6 percent on the season, sixth-worst in the league. That, of course, plays to the Mavs’ strength, as Dallas is still prone to struggles when it comes to defending the three-point line. However, the Mavericks remain one of the best teams at defending the paint, limiting opponents to just 38.8 points in the lane per game, third in the NBA. The Pistons rank 14th in the league in paint points per game.

The Pistons struggles extend to two-point range, as well. Detroit shoots a league-worst 40.9 percent from the field and 69.8 percent from the free throw line, 29th-best in the league. The club does, however, absolutely control the glass and scores 14.6 second-chance points per game, 8th in the league. The Mavs must crash the defensive glass to keep Drummond and Greg Monroe from getting easy looks at points.

In this league, anything can happen on the road, anything can happen on the second night of a back-to-back, and anything can happen when a struggling team plays a team that’s riding high. The Pistons have had a rough season, but have also recently grabbed two quality wins. The Mavs, meanwhile, shot lights-out last night and must continue that hot streak this evening. The Mavs are 11-2 against the East, and as we’ve said before, it will take at least 20 wins vs. the East to make the West playoffs this season. Dallas is going to have to play well to earn East win No. 12.