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Final: Mavs 102, Trail Blazers 101

  • When Dorian Finney-Smith’s initial offering missed the mark with 9:32 left, Dallas trailing 96-81, Portland’s win probability rose to a seemingly insurmountable 98.3 percent, based on ESPN’s model. But then, something improbable happened. Finney-Smith tipped in his own miss, a humble beginning to a 14-0 Mavericks run capped off by perhaps the game’s most unlikely bucket, a Tim Hardaway Jr. dunk created by an incredible series of tips, bobbles, and caroms along the sideline, mere inches from where Rick Carlisle was watching.

    Basketball has always been a game of numbers, but this era of the NBA is especially so. Every single event that happens in a game has a direct impact on the outcome, and teams have poured untold resources into identifying how they can maximize their odds to win. This game, though, did not follow any rules. The Mavs’ unlikely comeback was just one of several impossible flurries, first when Portland went on a 19-1 run in the first and second quarters and then again when Damian Lillard scored 21 points on eight shots in the third quarter, including scoring 16 straight at one point. The Blazers’ 92-78 lead at the end of the third quarter was itself supposedly a harbinger of what was to come when the clock read all zeros, as Portland had won each of the previous 33 games when it was ahead heading into the fourth. (Amazingly, the club had also lost all 21 games in which it trailed after three.) Rational thinking suggests that all things are solvable, or at least predictable. There was none of that tonight.

    This was the type of game that makes you believe many things. First, that Dallas has somehow found itself just 1.5 games behind LeBron and the Lakers, and just four games out of eighth place with two in hand, and that the playoffs might not yet be out of the question even as the team is just a couple weeks removed from a four-game skid sinking the record to 20-26. Second, that Luka Doncic is something special. It was Superhero Night at American Airlines Center, and Doncic answered the call — and in front of 100 Slovenian fans, no less, who made the trip from Ljubljana by way of Italy, Holland, and Minneapolis — scoring 15 of his team-high 28 points in the fourth quarter, answering Lillard’s dazzling display with one of his own. It was a sight to behold, even for a player who has already given us too many highlights for a rookie.

    Doncic is now averaging 24 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists over his last 15 games. In his last seven, he’s averaging just under 26, nine, and seven. Those numbers, from a teenager, might be the most difficult to believe of them all.

  • Doncic stole the spotlight at the end of his game with his scoring, but Maxi Kleber’s defense on Damian Lillard saved the day, staying vertical to contest two shots at the rim, including on the last play of the game.

    https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/1094724053984833536

    Kleber’s defense around the rim isn’t much of a secret anymore, but the magnitude of these stops are understandably amplified given what was at stake. It’s one thing to dominate second units, but post-trade Kleber has assumed starting duties, and he’s now making big plays against one of the best players in the NBA with the game on the line. Dorian Finney-Smith has also become a starter, and he was assigned to Lillard following the guard’s third-quarter explosion. Together, those two helped slow down what appeared to be a runaway freight train.

    Season-long stats are almost irrelevant at this point because Dallas has experienced so much roster turnover since opening night, but the Mavericks are now 10th in the league in defensive rating, and all the way up to second in opponent 3-point percentage. That latter stat in particular is almost unbelievable, considering in the first eight games of the season opponents hit 47.9 percent of their 26.4 attempts per contest. The Mavs started as much behind the 8-ball as a team can be, and yet they’ve scratched and clawed their way back near the top of the league. I’m not smart enough to understand why or how it’s happened, but give some credit to assistant coach Jamahl Mosley, who took over defensive coordinator duties this season following Melvin Hunt’s move to Atlanta.

  • Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 24 points on 18 shots and was a team-best +17 (also the only starter better than +9). He was dynamic, scoring from all over the floor. It was also a day of milestones for Hardaway, who scored his 5,000th career point and also hit his 700th career 3-pointer. More importantly, of course, he delivered a couple big baskets down the stretch, including the aforementioned dunk late in the fourth. He’s flashed quite a bit of athleticism so far in Dallas, linking up with Doncic on a couple of alley-oops already — including one tonight on a play known by some fans affectionately as the “Roddy Oop,” named after former Mavs guard Rodrigue Beaubois. Hardaway has a reputation as a dead-eye 3-point shooter and a dynamic scorer off the dribble, but he’s already shown he’s got hops, too, and has injected even more bounce into the starting lineup along with Finney-Smith and Kleber. Those three, plus Dwight Powell, give Dallas a nice combination of high-flyers to go along with the more ground-bound Doncic and Jalen Brunson, who combined for 13 assists, many of which went to those four.

    What’s Next

    The Mavs (26-29) head down to Houston for a quick back-to-back on Monday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m.

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