What we have here in the Western Conference finals is a prime example of the oldest and most accurate description of the NBA.
It’s a make-or-miss league.
On Tuesday in Game 4, the Minnesota Timberwolves made. The Mavericks missed.
That’s an oversimplification, of course. There are many reasons why the Wolves made 53 percent of their shots and a disturbingly strong 46 percent from three-point range (11-of-24).
A Mavericks’ defense that perhaps was a fraction out of sync. A brief exhale that would be nothing more than human nature after going up 3-0 in the series.
But perhaps the biggest turnaround was Karl-Anthony Towns. He was proclaimed by himself and seconded by the Wolves to be the best-shooting big man in NBA history when he won the three-point shootout at the 2022 All-Star Game.
Never mind anything that Dirk Nowitzki did in his 21-year career.
So what happened? In the first three games in this series, he was subarctic, going 3-for-22 from distance, including 0-for-8 in Game 3.
He finally hit four of five from beyond the arc Tuesday.
The odds probably caught up with the Mavericks. Shooters don’t stay icy forever.
By the same token, when Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving both shoot 33.3 percent for a combined 13-of-39, the Mavericks know they are fighting an uphill battle.
Overall, the Mavericks were 14-for-40 from three-point range, but after averaging just 28 triples in the first three games, they went overboard with their long-distance infatuation on Tuesday. While 35 percent isn’t terrible from beyond the arc, when you’re only 20-for-41 from inside the arc, it’s not enough to sustain the offense.
From two-point territory in the first three games, the Mavericks went 37-62 (59.7 percent, 29-53 (54.7 percent) and 24-40 (60 percent). When you shoot below 50 percent from close range as they did Tuesday, the offense is in trouble.
“We got great looks coming down the stretch,” coach Jason Kidd said. “We just didn’t make them. In this series, we’ve been knocking down late threes, wide-open threes. This evening, we didn’t.”
That wasn’t the only issue, of course.
“We fouled too much,” Kidd said. “We got to stop fouling and also we got to guard the three better. And we didn’t shoot the ball well. There’s a lot of things we can do better.”
And the Mavericks did those things better in the first three games of this series. That’s what earned them a 3-0 lead. Just because they didn’t finish the sweep doesn’t mean they haven’t been the dominant team in this series.
They have. And now they get a chance to finish it on the road, which any coach or player will tell you is always sweeter.
“This is a great opportunity as a young team to go through this,” Kidd said. “How do we get better? What mistakes did we make? This is a new group going against one of the best teams in the league.”
And the Mavericks still are up 3-1.
To review the facts: teams ahead 3-1 in a best-of-seven series win it a shade over 95 percent of the time. And those that had a 3-0 lead against a team with home-court advantage are 20-0. Of those, 15 swept, two won in five games, two won in six games and one – the 2023 Miami Heat against Boston – won in seven games.
X: @ESefko
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