2024 Cup Nights scenarios: Mavericks advance with a win — probably, we think

It would be nice and simple to say that if the Mavericks beat the Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday night at American Airlines Center, they will advance to the knockout round of the 2024 Cup Nights.

But like most things in life, it’s not that simple.

Things do look positive for the Mavericks going into the final night of group-stage play on Tuesday. Their margin of victory in their three previous Cup Nights games is plus-41. That makes them an overwhelming favorite to get to the knockout round if they beat the Grizzlies.

Not guaranteed. But the Mavericks would need a crazy set of circumstances to not make the next round.

However, if the Mavericks don’t beat the Grizz, they won’t be playing in the money rounds of the 2024 Cup Nights.

Most likely.

Even a loss Tuesday would leave them with some mathematical chance that would confuse even Einstein that could place a 2-2 Mavericks team in the knockout round.

The best advice for fans is to tune in and find out with the rest of the NBA on Tuesday. As anybody who has ever watched an NBA game knows, trying to predict the future is an exercise done at your own risk.

Things to remember: Golden State has clinched Group C, which the Mavericks are in. And Houston has clinched Group A. So two spots remain. One will go to the winner of Group B, which will be either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. The Spurs are in with a win against Phoenix Tuesday. If they lose, Oklahoma City can clinch the group with a win over Utah.

That leaves the wild-card spot for the Mavericks, possibly. If the 2024 Cup Nights ended Monday, the Mavericks would be in the knockout round.

But it didn’t end Monday. So here are some scenarios that can provide a little clarity on what will happen if certain things happen.

• If the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies, they will be 3-1 in Cup Nights Group Play. To make the four-team knockout round in the West, they have to win tiebreakers against a host of other non-group-winning teams.
• So how is that decided? Well, it likely will come down to point differential. At plus-41, the Mavericks are 22 points better than any of the other one-loss teams, giving them an excellent chance of finishing with the highest point differential of any of the non-group winners.
• But a blowout win by Phoenix or Oklahoma City could push one of those teams past the Mavericks in the tiebreaker rankings.

Again, if you are riveted by the 2024 Cup Nights, Tuesday will be a must-watch night for NBA action.

WESTERN CONFERENCE 2024 CUP NIGHTS STANDINGS

X: @ESefko