The Mavericks wanted any potential move they made at the trade deadline to meet three criteria. First, the acquired player must help the team continue its push for the eighth and final playoff seed in the Western Conference. Second, he must also be young enough to become part of the young, emerging nucleus the team is building. Finally, Dallas did not want to surrender its first-round pick this season, which gains more and more value with each passing day, in what could be a deep class toward the top of the first round.
Dallas accomplished all three things with one of its most significant deadline-day deals in franchise history. The club acquired center Nerlens Noel from the Philadelphia 76ers. Just 22 years old, Noel has tremendous defensive potential and could fit rather seamlessly into the Mavs’ spread pick-and-roll offense. In return, the Mavs sent second-year wing and 2015 first-round pick Justin Anderson, center Andrew Bogut, and a heavily protected 2017 first-rounder, which will almost certainly remain with Dallas. In that case, the Mavs would send this year’s and next year’s second-rounders.
As it relates to meeting the criteria, check, check, and check.
Noel has long been considered a possible future defensive juggernaut who possesses a rare combination of height, length, quickness, and verticality. He’s the only player in NBA history with per-36 minute averages of 13+ points, 9+ rebounds, 2+ blocks, and 2+ steals. Offensively, he’s a potential terror in the pick-and-roll, capable of soaring through the air as a lob target. This season he’s shooting a career-high 61.1 percent from the field, including 71.8 percent within the restricted area and a career-best 47.6 percent on shots from between 16 feet and the 3-point line, though on only 21 attempts.
His addition to the big man rotation immediately addresses the Mavs’ most critical need heading into the season’s home stretch: He is an exceptional interior defender and should do wonders helping on the defensive glass. With Dirk Nowitzki at center and Harrison Barnes at power forward, Dallas had been scoring better than 1.13 points per possession, per nbawowy.com, but allowing 1.14 PPP. For his career, opponents have shot worse than 50 percent at the rim against Noel, per SportVU. During his rookie campaign in Philadelphia — the only season in his career that he’s started and exclusively played center — he finished top-10 in the NBA in both block percentage and steal percentage.
The 76ers’ logjam at the center position necessitated a move on their end, as Noel becomes a restricted free agent this summer, which explains his availability and sporadic playing time this season. But with rookie Joel Embiid out to injury lately, Noel’s playing time increased. In his final four games as a Sixer, he averaged 14.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 28.8 minutes per game on 73.5 percent shooting from the field.
Standing just under 7 feet tall with a wingspan measured as long as 7-foot-4 and an impressive vertical leap, Noel naturally seems like a good fit in the Mavs’ pick-and-roll offense. He is one of the most effortlessly explosive leapers at the center position in the NBA. Watch how much air he gets.
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He is capable of jaw-dropping aerial acrobatics.
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That explosiveness also comes in handy in the open floor, when he can set an early screen and roll to the bucket before the defense has a chance to set itself.
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Considering all the space Noel will be playing in — assuming, of course, he spends most of his time playing with either Nowitzki or Barnes at power forward — he can use these early slip-screens to take advantage of dozing opposing centers. It evokes memories of watching Tyson Chandler and Brandan Wright during the 2014-15 season, when the Mavs ran pick-and-roll better than any team in basketball.
His vertical also comes in handy when a play breaks down or even when the defensive coverage works. You can count on him to climb the ladder and pull down super-high lob passes and still finish.
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Between Noel and Dwight Powell, the Mavericks have two of the best alley-oop targets in the NBA in the pick-and-roll game. Salah Mejri has proven his worth as a roll man, as well, which means Dallas can have an above-average roll threat on the floor for 48 minutes a game, if it so chooses.
Nowitzki has enjoyed extreme success at the center position, especially when partnered with Yogi Ferrell. But a return to the 4 could make things easier for Dirk, as Dallas doesn’t want to run him ragged on a nightly basis as the only screener on the floor. Nowitzki is just as effective when spotting up, where his gravity can open things up for others. But he’s not the only player whose presence creates space: Defenses struggle to slow down strong roll men while also limiting kick-out options. Ersan Ilyasova, Noel’s former teammate in Philly, capitalized off the extra breathing room many times.
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Just as Nowitzki has horizontal gravity, dictating that defenses pay attention to him, Noel can create “vertical gravity,” which will force opposing big men to always keep his aerial game in mind. As they back-pedal against Ferrell, Seth Curry, or whoever else is handling the ball, they’ll know in the back of their mind that if they commit too early to the ball-handler, they’ll be taking the ball out of bounds after Noel stuffs home a dunk.
Noel can do the same things on defense as he does on offense when it comes to slowing down the lob game.
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He occasionally takes risks defensively against the pick-and-roll; he’ll step out and stick his hand out in an effort to create a steal. He’s been very good at it — he’s almost better in that regard than Dirk, who’s one of the best swipers in NBA history — and it leads to plenty of turnovers near mid-court.
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He’s been caught a few times trying that move, though. Point guards are very quick these days, so if he steps out too far and doesn’t connect with the ball, he risks giving up an easier drive to the basket. Dallas has generally played a very conservative pick-and-roll defense for most of this season, especially when either Dirk or Bogut manned the middle. However, Rick Carlisle has ramped up the aggression in recent games when the Mavs have fallen behind by inserting Powell at center and having him blitz every screen. That played a huge part in Dallas’ comebacks against Portland and Utah right before the break.
He could certainly do the same thing with Noel, but playing with that level of aggression for 30 minutes a game would be extremely demanding physically and mentally. Still, it’s a nice trick to be able to pull from up Carlisle’s sleeve if the game isn’t going the way he wants it.
Centers in the modern NBA have to be able to do much more than just defend against the pick-and-roll. The future of the league is finding bigs who can switch on to guards and stay in front of them, avoiding disaster. It’s no easy task, to be sure, but Noel has very good foot speed for a player his size. How many centers on the planet can do this?
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First, Noel steps out against Kemba Walker. Then he sniffs out a pin-down for Nic Batum and runs him off the line and is still able to recover to his man, Frank Kaminsky, without giving up an open shot. Then he immediately defends another pick-and-roll, this time against Marco Belinelli, and he forces him all the way out to five feet behind the 3-point line, giving his teammate time to recover and contest the shot. And even after covering all that ground, he still gets a body on Kaminsky under the basket, which frees up his teammate to grab the defensive rebound. You don’t want him to play all-out like that every time down the floor, because he’s got an entire game to play here, but man. Just an incredible display of athleticism.
Noel is one of just five starters who have a defensive box/plus minus rating of +3 or higher each of the last three seasons, joined only by Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan, and Bogut. (DBPM estimates the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team.) That’s a collection of perhaps the best defenders in the entire NBA, and Noel is part of it. And he’s only 22 years old.
It’s going to be very interesting to see where Noel fits in the rest of this season. Carlisle will have some time to tinker with lineups here and there, but there’s only so many games left. He handicapped the odds of Nowitzki and Barnes moving back to 4 and 3, respectively, at “less than 50 percent,” so that makes me wonder if Noel will come off the bench, or if maybe he’s just throwing a smokescreen.
Moving forward, meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how the Barnes/Noel frontcourt develops. Dallas has clearly made this move with life post-Dirk in mind, even if that moment doesn’t come until after one or two more seasons. While Nowitzki is still here, the Mavs will have an embarrassment of frontcourt riches, able to mix and match against so many different opponents. Nowitzki has said in the past that he’s willing to come off the bench if it helps the team win. I’m not suggesting that time has come (or will come at all), but could you imagine what bringing either of those guys off the bench would do to the second unit?
Dallas has made a move for the present that also could pay massive dividends in the future. Noel fits right in with the team’s youth movement, now becoming the youngest player on the team, which is hard to believe. He joins Barnes, Powell, Yogi Ferrell, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Seth Curry as key contributors under 27 years old, and Curry is the only one in the group older than 24. Only Powell began last season on the team. Dallas has built a promising young core in less than a year.
And Noel has just become the center of that nucleus.
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