Here we are, about three weeks from the end of the NBA’s regular season.
At times like this, I’m reminded about things I read back in the preseason, like the prediction that nobody in the Western Conference would win 50 games this season.
I’m not sure who predicted that, but it was a bold bit of speculation.
It’s going to be wrong. But not by much.
The Denver Nuggets have 48 wins with 10 games left. So it’s hard to fathom they would go 1-9 the rest of the way. Sacramento and Memphis both have a decent shot at 50 wins. They would have to go 7-5 or better down the stretch.
But the fact of the matter is that the Western Conference has been brutal this season. It was just a season ago when the Phoenix Suns had 64 wins.
But the 50-win barrier lately has been meaningful, because fewer teams are doing it, although the shortened seasons have something to do with that.
Here’s a list of 50-win teams in the Western Conference since the Mavericks won the championship in 2011.
2021-22….Four (Phoenix, Memphis, Golden State, Dallas)
*2020-21….Two (Utah, Phoenix)
*2019-20……One (LA Lakers)
2018-19…….Five (Golden State, Denver, Portland, Houston, Utah)
2017-18…….Two (Houston, Golden State)
2016-17…….Five (Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, LA Clippers, Utah)
2015-16…….Four (Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers)
2014-15…….Seven (Golden State, LA Clippers, Houston, Memphis, San Antonio, Portland, Dallas)
2013-14…….Seven (San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, Houston, Portland, Golden State, Memphis)
2012-13…….Five (Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, LA Clippers, Memphis)
*2011-12…….One (San Antonio)
(*Shortened season.)
The point of that is that while a lot of fans aren’t particularly happy with the Mavericks this season, the year has been tough on just about everybody in the Western Conference.
With that, here’s a few questions we got over the last week, although the mailbag has been pretty light lately.
From MATT B.: Jason Kidd says he’s been tinkering with the lineup all season. How, after 70 or so games has he not found one that works? Or has he? Why hasn’t he tinkered with Christian Wood closing games?
BIG ED: All fair questions. The Wood situation is working itself out as we go. As the games get more meaningful, we’re seeing more of Wood late. He played half of the fourth quarter at San Antonio on Wednesday and nearly 10 minutes of the final period on Friday against the Lakers. A pair of close wins, by the way. But I would give Kidd some leeway on the other issues for several reasons, not the least of which is injuries. He’s had to patch things together quite often. Plus, the more guys who get used to playing meaningful minutes, the more guys you might be comfortable playing when the stakes are high in April and beyond. This has not been a smooth-sailing season. There have been a lot of problems that have needed navigating. To me, the more guys you can lean on if you really have to, the better. Doesn’t mean they’ll always come through in the clutch. But they’ve been in those positions before, which gives them a better chance.
From MARILYN: What’s your gut tell you that that Mavericks will finish in the Western Conference?
BIG ED: I wish I had unbridled confidence that they would finish in the top six and avoid the play-in games. But I think there’s a lot of question marks with every team from five through 12. Phoenix will be one of the top six. And probably one of the top four. After that, the Clippers, Mavericks, Warriors, Wolves, Thunder, Jazz and Lakers all have opportunities. And they all have flaws, too. But since you’re asking me specifically about the Mavericks, I’m here to tell you that two superstars – and yes, they will get on the court together – are enough to get you to No. 6 in the Western Conference and avoid the play-in shenanigans. But if injuries linger or new ones crop up, then all bets are off. While finishing in the top six is far preferable, just being in the top eight means you only have to win one home game to make the playoff field. If you are ninth or 10th, you will have to win two in a row to get in. Huge difference. Just keep the positivity going and remember that the standings are going to change wildly from here until April 9.
From MICHAEL: Are the Mavericks in tank mode?
BIG ED: Amazingly, I got this question from several people. Come on, folks. We all got to be better than this. Do you honestly believe Luka would allow any team he’s a part of to play to lose? It never happened with Dirk. It never happened with any superstar player, with the possible exception of the old days when the Tim Duncan sweepstakes was in full bloom. The Mavericks didn’t swing the deal for Kyrie Irving to do any nosediving into a lottery in which they don’t even own their pick unless they are in the top 10. Let’s see what happens on the rest of this road trip and then we’ll know more about whether this team will still have a chance to avoid the play-in tournament or whether they’ll have to jump-start themselves just to make the play-in.
Twitter: @ESefko
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