LOS ANGELES – It’s not win or go home Wednesday night for the Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers.
But when it comes to taking charge in their first-round playoff series, it’s huge. When the match is tied, there is no bigger swing game than the next one.
At 2-2, the Mavericks and Clippers know that whoever wins at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday night will have a clear advantage to move on to the second round against Oklahoma City.
Luka Dončić knows it, too. And while he’s fighting a sprained right knee, he was listed as probable by coach Jason Kidd on Tuesday.
You kind of figured there was no way he’s missing a game of this magnitude. If he can walk, he probably plays.
But can he play up to Luka Magic standards? That wasn’t the case in Game 4 after he injured the knee early in Game 3. And, yes, we understand the oxymoron sort of tone in that statement about a game in which Dončić had a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
But he shot just 1-of-9 from three-point land. And that’s part of the Clippers’ plan, clearly.
“It’s simple now. They’re throwing a lot of different bodies at him and making him work and taking the three away or taking the lob away,” Kidd said after Tuesday’s light practice and film session. “For him, he’s got to look to score a little bit more for us and be aggressive and set the tone early.”
That was a direct reference to the awful first quarter the Mavericks had on Sunday, when they were down 39-16 and allowed the lead to bloat to 31 points before any sort of happy hour revelry could start in the afternoon game.
That dud kept the Mavericks from taking a 3-1 lead in the series. Instead, it could very much go either way.
But before you convince yourself that the Game 5 winner will win the series, remember that in 2021 the Mavericks won Game 5 in LA to go up 3-2 and lost the next two games and the series.
That series also was against the Clippers, albeit a much different version.
Now, the Mavericks have reached another crossroads. Game 5 winners in a tied series go on to the next round 81.7 percent of the time (188-42).
“You learn from your wins, you learn from your losses,” Kidd said. “Game 4, we learned. We fought and got back into the game, took the lead. But there were things that led up to that, that we can’t do.
“We had a bad quarter the first quarter. You can’t have bad quarters at this time of the year, especially against the Clippers. They’re a very good team.”
And his team knows the critical nature of Game 5.
“A lot of times in series, there are swing games,” he said. “A lot of guys look at three and five as swing games. And so, we’re going on the road, this is a swing game. The winner controls the series. And so, we got to find a way to win on the road.”
They’ve already done it once. So there’s no mental block to get through. It’s just a matter of cleaning up the mistakes of Game 4. And making life simpler for Luka.
The players know there are things they can do to facilitate that.
“We can try to give him better spacing,” forward P.J. Washington said. “We haven’t really been giving him good outlets and causing him to take some tough shots on multiple guys.”
Dončić always has to work hard for everything he gets on the floor. As the first round has progressed, his degree of difficulty to dominate on offense has seemed to go up accordingly.
He went so far as to say he felt like he was letting down Kyrie Irving with his play. Irving has been spectacular for the most part.
“That’s his opinion,” Kidd said. “He’s doing everything he can for his teammates, but that’s his opinion, you got to respect that.
“He’s not letting anybody down, he’s playing, you’re going to make some shots, you’re going to miss some shots. That’s just part of basketball. But we believe when it comes down to it, he’s going to be there to deliver and we got a chance on the road in Game 5 (Wednesday).”
And then there’s the other end of the court. Dončić has turned himself into a capable defender this season, but with the knee perhaps limiting him, he has been targeted by the Clippers at the defensive end.
As he said about the way the Clippers are attacking with Kawhi Leonard out with a knee problem of his own, it opens the floodgates for Paul George and James Harden.
“We know PG and Harden are going to take all the shots and create the offense,” Dončić said. “So we got to do a better job on them.”
While that might qualify Luka for Captain Obvious consideration, but sometimes you just don’t have to overthink things.
The Mavericks are facing a crucial Game 5.
So are the Clippers.
They should both buckle up for this.
X: @ESefko
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