If there’s one thing we’ve learned from watching Dirk Nowitzki for nearly two decades, it’s that he’s consistent. He will play, he will score, and he will make impossible things he’s doing look pretty easy.
Just how consistent is he? Nowitzki has scored at least 1,300 points in all but two seasons in his career: in 2012-13, when he missed the first 27 games due to injury, and in his lockout-shortened rookie campaign. That’s it.
That’s one of many reasons why the German has climbed all the way up to No. 6 on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, passing Shaquille O’Neal in December of last season. Now, at 29,491 career points, he’s primed to join yet another exclusive group: the 30,000-point club.
| Place | Player | Career Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 38,387 |
| 2 | Karl Malone | 36,928 |
| 3 | Kobe Bryant | 33,643 |
| 4 | Michael Jordan | 32,292 |
| 5 | Wilt Chamberlain | 31,419 |
| 6 | Dirk Nowitzki | 29,491 |
Some time this season, assuming his incredible run of 1,300-point campaigns comes anywhere close to extending another year, he will become the sixth NBA player to score 30,000 career points. The points are going to come, and they’re going to come quickly.
Mavs fans have been lucky enough to witness Nowitzki pass Hakeem Olajuwon, Elvin Hayes, and so many other legends of the game at American Airlines Center. He also scored his 20,000th career point at home against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2010. Those have been special moments to witness in-person, and he always receives the ovation he deserves.
The 30,000-point plateau is another opportunity to witness history up-close and personal. The list of current NBA players who might some day even have a remote chance of also achieve that milestone is incredibly short, so this is pretty significant stuff he’s doing.
But when will he do it? And where? And against which team? Let’s forecast some history. Assuming Nowitzki plays every game between opening night and the milestone, here’s when he’ll reach 30,000 if he averages 15, 17, or 20 points per game.
| Points Per Game | Date He’ll Score 30,000 | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | Dec. 29 | |
| 17.0 | Dec. 21 | |
| 20.0 | Dec. 14 |
Nothing would be cooler than seeing Nowitzki score point No. 30,000 at home — OK, OK, I’m sure a nice playoff run would suffice — but these truly are once-in-a-lifetime moments that fans get to experience with him. Doing so at American Airlines Center would be awesome to see.
Obviously there’s no guarantee Dirk will score his 30,000th in any of the three above games, and it’s also not guaranteed that he’ll play every single game of the season, even if he’s completely healthy. Last season head coach Rick Carlisle rested Nowitzki on an occasional back-to-back in an attempt to keep him fresh for the stretch run, which proved to be a wise decision. That could again be the case this season, meaning it’s a very difficult thing to project months in advance.
The best way to keep up with his pursuit of individual players is the Countdown page on Mavs.com, which updates nightly how many points he needs to pass the next player on the list, who in this case is all-time legend Wilt Chamberlain. (It’s still weird to see Nowitzki’s name next to those of Wilt and No. 4 scorer Michael Jordan, isn’t it?) But rest assured we will count down to 30,000 as well, especially as the date draws nearer.
After all, Nowitzki deserves every ounce of this attention. To quote ESPN color commentator Jeff Van Gundy: “This is historic stuff.”
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