Back in the preseason, picking Dallas, Golden State, Miami and Boston to be the final four NBA teams standing would have been tough.
But by the end of the second round of the playoffs, it was clear these teams were playing the best basketball of anybody left.
Talented teams playing really well at the right time.
That’s how you get here. You try to stay lucky on the health front and play your best basketball when the stakes are highest. It’s worked for the Mavericks and Warriors.
And so, here’s a breakdown of what fans can expect from the two teams as they begin an improbable Western Conference finals Wednesday at Chase Center in San Francisco:
PACE VS. SPACE: As good as the Warriors are defensively, they also push the pace offensively. They launch a lot of 3-pointers early on the shot clock. They use a lot of motion with Steph Curry running all over the court, which can make it tough to keep track of cutters to the rim as defenses try to keep somebody in Curry’s shadow.
You know Curry is going to have one of those monster games somewhere along the line. The hope is that he doesn’t have three or four of them. And the Mavericks ran two players at Curry early and often in the last regular-season meeting, when he didn’t get a shot in the fourth quarter.
“I anticipate they will blitz Steph and try to get the ball out of his hands,” Kerr said.
And if they do?
“I think we have to be more aggressive,” Klay Thompson said. “If they’re going to play him (like that), it’s on us, the other guys, to make them pay.”
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are a team built offensively on spacing. They need room for Dončić to operate and the best way to do that is to spread the floor with shooters. It’s the same at the end of first quarters, when Spencer Dinwiddie usually comes in for Jalen Brunson.
Dinwiddie gets more avenues to the basket if Luka and other 3-point shooters are drawing defenders away from the paint.
This chess match should be fascinating to watch.
DEFENSE TRAVELS: When the Warriors came through Dallas on Dirk Nowitzki’s jersey-retirement night on Jan. 6, coach Steve Kerr was asked how the Warriors went from a mostly small-ball approach for decades to becoming a gritty defensive squad.
“I think there was sort of a cultural shift about a decade ago that reflected in a lot of the personnel decisions,” Kerr said. “And then, I think once you have that mentality and some defensive anchors, now it’s much easier to get some of the other players to buy in.
“And when you go deep in the playoffs, you realize that if you can’t make stops, you can’t win. It’s as simple as that.”
The Mavericks appear to have understood that message loud and clear.
The Warriors had the NBA’s best overall defensive rating this season. They have Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala, although he is iffy with injury concerns.
They also have Thompson, who is a respected defender on top of being one of the most lethal shooters in NBA history.
The Mavericks’ major step up defensively this season is why they are still playing.
“They’ve done a great job, and I’m not surprised,” Kerr said Tuesday. “Jason’s always been a very defensive-oriented coach and is very creative.
“And the continuity on their roster – that’s such an underrated part of the NBA these days. That really matters.”
Kerr rattled off that the Mavericks have a core – Luka, Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway Jr. – that has been together for four seasons.
All of those players stepped up at different times in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Who will it be in the conference finals?
WILL THE WARRIORS TARGET LUKA? The short answer is: yes, most likely.
Kerr addressed that subject Tuesday and said that as the playoffs go along, the idea of targeting supposedly vulnerable defenders or offensive players who could be fatigued if they have to overwork on the defensive end, becomes a more legitimate option.
“It becomes a much bigger strategy,” Kerr said. “You tend to play the pick-on game more. And it’s probably a much bigger part of the NBA than it was even 10 years ago.”
Asked if he ever got picked on when he was a player, Kerr said: “Pretty much every game.”
REMEMBER WHEN? Remember the Warriors winning their final five games of the regular season to hold off the Mavericks for the No. 3 seed?
It looms a bit larger now since it’s the only reason that Golden State owns the home-court advantage in this best-of-seven.
The Mavericks had a loss at Washington on April Fool’s Day and that was the only game either of these teams lost down in April. It made a big difference in the final standings.
In fact, since April 1, the Warriors have a 13-3 record and have not lost consecutive games over the last seven-plus weeks.
HEALTH ISSUES: The Mavericks have been relatively healthy, other than Tim Hardaway Jr.’s foot surgery that will sideline him until next season.
They ended the Phoenix series with Jalen Brunson hobbling around after Game 7. But he said he would be fine going into Game 1 against the Warriors and there is nobody else on the Mavericks’ injury report other than Hardaway.
For Golden State, they have two injuries of note. Andre Iguodala has been out with a neck issue and likely won’t play, at least early in the series. Gary Payton II suffered an elbow injury earlier this month and is out indefinitely.
However, Otto Porter Jr. has been listed as probable for Game 1 by Kerr. Porter has been dealing with a foot problem.
TWITTER: @ESefko
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