Yogi Ferrell set the bar high during his first 10 games as a Maverick. Impossibly high.
Why “impossibly?” Well, let’s just say if Ferrell’s career goes the same way as the other names on the list he finds himself on right now, he and the Mavs would likely be the happiest people in sports.
Through his first 10 games in Dallas, Ferrell is averaging 15.5 points and 5.1 assists per 36 minutes on 45.0 percent shooting from the field, with a 59.6 true shooting percentage, a stat which takes into account 2- and 3-point shots and free throws.
A player’s per-36 numbers are a more accurate representation of his production. For example, there’s a difference between scoring 10 points in 10 minutes and 10 in 40, just like pulling down five rebounds in five minutes is more impressive than bringing in five in 20. Looking at per-36 levels the playing field between bench players and starters when it comes to comparing levels of production and forecasting what a player could potentially do with an expanded opportunity, and seeing as most rookies come off the bench (like Ferrell has the last three games) it’s fair to consider those numbers instead of his per-game averages.
Taking them into consideration might actually be more unfair to him, though, at least as it relates to expectations.
According to Basketball-Reference, the last three rookies to average at least 15 points and five assists per 36 minutes with a true shooting percentage of 55.0 or higher were Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, and Stephen Curry. (Players also had to play at least 400 minutes to qualify.) Other names on the list — there are only 10 total — include Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, and, gulp, Michael Jordan.
Those names are going to invoke a certain reaction, and they ought to. How many times does a player have the chance to be on a list with His Airness?!
But Khalid Reeves and Billy McKinney are also on the list, and while both enjoyed multi-year careers — Reeves averaged 8.2 points for Dallas in 1997-98 at age 25 — inclusion in this particular group of players does not guarantee a spot in the Hall of Fame. Also, Gilbert Arenas played the fewest games of the players on the list as a rookie, at 47. Ferrell has played only 10 in Dallas. He’s got plenty of work to do to maintain this pace over an extended period of time.
The fact that there’s even a discussion about this kind of thing, though, speaks volumes of the level at which Ferrell has played during his very short time as a Maverick. He out-dueled Irving 19-18 in his second game with the Mavericks as Dallas stunned the Cavs, and his 32-point outburst in Portland stood out as one of the best single-game performances of any rookie in the NBA this season. On Feb. 13 against the Celtics, he scored 20 points and dished out five assists off the bench.
That Boston game was interesting for several reasons. Ferrell matched up against Isaiah Thomas, who’s averaging nearly 30 points per game this season. Those two players are clearly on different levels at this point in their careers, but they’re similarly sized, so it’s natural to want to compare them. Thomas didn’t come into the NBA as a big-time scorer — as a 22-year-old rookie in 2011-12, he averaged a modest 11.5 points in 25.5 minutes per game, which translates to 16.3 points per 36 minutes — but as he got an expanded opportunity and improved as a player, he was able to rev up his scoring ability.
Rick Carlisle has made it no secret that he values scoring point guards, even if it means they’re under-sized in traditional terms. J.J. Barea was a key piece of the 2010-11 title team despite recording fewer than 10 points and four assists per game. But per 36 minutes, he scored 16.6 points and dished out 6.8 assists. He might not have played a huge amount of minutes, but he made them count. (Since rejoining the Mavericks in 2014-15, Barea averages 16.7 points and 6.8 assists per 36. Nothing’s changed.)
At this point, Ferrell resembles Barea more than he does Thomas, but no one knows what the future holds for him. Heck, I’m sure the Mavs would be thrilled if he became the kind of player Barea is, one of the premier backup guards in the NBA capable of huge scoring outbursts who’s been productive for a decade. They would also certainly be overjoyed if Ferrell became Thomas, an MVP candidate and a scoring title contender.
The thing about the future is it’s uncertain. No one thought Steph Curry would become STEPH CURRY when he was scoring 17.4 points per 36 minutes as a rookie at age 21, but he improved a whole lot over time. (Connections abound: Curry, Thomas, and Ferrell are three of only four players in the NBA to have hit at least nine 3s in a game this season.) I’m not sure anyone thought Thomas would ever average nearly 30 a game, either, otherwise he certainly wouldn’t have been the 60th pick in the 2011 Draft and he wouldn’t have played on three teams in his first four seasons. Ferrell himself went undrafted in 2016 and is already playing for his second team.
It’s definitely OK to be excited about Ferrell, but while his first 10 games in Dallas might turn out to be better than any other 10-game stretch he’ll have the rest of this season, he’s still shown he has the potential to be a quality player in this league. Will he average 30 a game like Curry or Thomas? Will he ever even average 20? Or double-digits? Will he be a game-changing backup like Barea? Will he be something else?
Who knows? Just enjoy the good times. That’s part of the development process.
And celebrate the weird, incredible lists he pops up on as they come.
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