The Mavericks may have found something in their new starting lineup.
The group of Deron Williams, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and Dirk Nowitzki has started the last three games, and in that time Dallas is 3-0. In 37 minutes together during that stretch, the unit is scoring a blistering 128.4 points per 100 possessions.
For reference, the Toronto Raptors have the league’s best offense this season (and one of the best of all-time at this rate) and they score 113.8 points per 100 possessions.
It’s difficult to pinpoint one specific reason why that group has played so well in the last three games. Certainly, the quality of competition hasn’t been supreme, as Dallas has beaten Phoenix and Minnesota, two of the bottom-10 defenses in the league. But Chicago, on the other hand, is the No. 11 defense in all of basketball. Besides, for the entire season, that group has scored 122.8 points per 100 possessions in 63 minutes, so there’s large enough a sample size elsewhere to conclude that, yes, this group can ball.
Dirk Nowitzki’s return to the regular rotation has coincided with Deron Williams’ pick-and-roll renaissance, and that certainly has given the offense a boost. With Nowitzki at center, the Mavericks can space the floor more precisely and more extremely than almost every other NBA team. Case in point: On the Mavs’ final offensive possession in Tuesday’s win against the Bulls, Nowitzki pulled Cristiano Felicio so far from the rim that the only Bull who could slow down Williams’ wide-open rim attack was Dwyane Wade, who had to sink so far off of Wesley Matthews that neither he nor anyone else could recover in time to contest what would be the game-winner.
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It never hurts to space the floor with as much 3-point shooting as possible, and that’s exactly what that lineup is capable of doing. While either Nowitzki or Barnes works in the mid-range, the Mavericks can spread the floor with shooters at every position, and each player 1-4 can attack off the dribble and find the open man, which makes rotating a problem for undisciplined defenses.
But perhaps the player most responsible for unlocking this group’s offensive potential is the most unheralded one of the group: Seth Curry.
In his last 19 games, the 26-year-old is averaging 10.6 points and 2.5 assists per game on 50.3 percent shooting from the field and a league-leading 53.5 percent on 3.7 3-point attempts per game. Most of his minutes in that time, and especially recently, have come at the off-guard position next to either Williams or J.J. Barea, and even the Curry/Devin Harris backcourt has proven to be an electric combination in multiple games.
In those 19 games, Curry has a 63.4 effective field goal percentage, a 122 offensive rating, and a 16.3 assist percentage. The only player in the NBA in the last two seasons to maintain 60/120/15 numbers across an entire campaign is Seth’s older brother, two-time reigning MVP Steph Curry. That gives you an idea of the level at which he’s produced in the last month-plus.
When playing alongside both Williams and Nowitzki this season, Curry has scored 1.51 points per possession in 95 minutes, sporting shooting percentages of 58.3 from the field and from deep and a 72.9 effective field goal percentage.
What makes him so dynamic, particularly in that five-man group, is Curry can both spot up from deep and also attack off the dribble as a coveted secondary ball-handler, capable of taking advantage of an unbalanced floor or driving around big men off the switch. Curry has come far as a playmaker this season, after spending most of his earlier career as more of a pure shooting guard.
It’s easy to forget that he’s played only 85 NBA games in his career, so he’s still essentially just a second-year player despite being 26 years old. It appears he’s reached a point where he’s now experienced enough to see and feel the game better, while also being able to capitalize off of being in his physical prime.
In the last three games, the Mavs’ starting five has a 128.4 offensive rating, +9.7 net rating (meaning they outscore the opponent by 9.7 points per 100 possessions), and a 77.1 assist percentage, meaning they assist on 77.1 percent of their made field goals. The Warriors are on nearly a record-setting pace with just over a 71 percent assist rate.
Whatever the Mavs are doing is working. Whether it’s mostly due to Williams in the pick-and-roll, Nowitzki’s spacing, hot shooting from Curry and Matthews, or Barnes’ continued terrific run — or maybe the point is it’s all five coalescing — Dallas will hope to carry over this chemistry into Miami tomorrow night, and then into the games beyond.
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