With all the good things we’ve been saying about the impact Tyson Chandler can make at the rim on both ends of the floor, the big man’s jump shot has almost gone not talked about.
Chandler attempted 32 field goals from 15-19 feet last season, per NBA.com. That’s his highest mark since the 39 he took during the 2010-11 season, which he spent with the Mavs. One of the team’s trademark plays that season — typically one of the first sets Dallas would run any given night — resulted in an open elbow jumper for the center.
Rick Carlisle has always tended to only run sets that work, and that play for Chandler worked almost every time. He hit 18 of his 39 mid-range attempts during his lone season in Dallas, good for 46.2 percent. He also hit four of his seven attempts from between 10-14 feet. Those are the types of percentages Carlisle will hope Chandler can replicate this upcoming season should that same play reappear within the Mavs’ offense.
The center didn’t enjoy the same level of success on such shots with the New York Knicks last season, as he hit just 12 of 32 attempts from 15-19 feet. The big man earned 4.9 elbow touches per game with the Knicks last season, according to SportVU, second on the team only to Carmelo Anthony. One could argue that nearly five elbow touches is simply too much for a player with an elite finishing ability at the rim. Heck, even Dirk Nowitzki only got 4.2 elbow touches per game in 2013-14, and he scores at a high clip from that region of the floor.
Chandler’s 67.9 field goal percentage during the 2011-12 season for a time ranked as the highest single-season shooting performance in league history. That season, he took just nine shots from 10 feet and beyond. His shot chart looked like this (courtesy of Nylon Calculus).
All of his volume was at the rim. All of it. However, just two seasons later, he experienced a huge leap not only in touches outside the paint, but also in shots, too. It isn’t exactly fair to argue the Knicks just weren’t as good at generating clean looks for Chandler. As we’ll see later, they were. But it’s curious that the team would use him to do one thing when he performed so well doing another. In fact, his shot chart from that season looks very similar to Brandan Wright’s from last season. The Mavs’ big man’s is below.
Just because Chandler’s performance from mid-range took a slight dip last season does not mean he’s suddenly lost the ability to make those shots. As is always the case with any player, individual performance to a degree does rely on the skills and abilities of not only his teammates, but also his coach and the system he runs. The Knicks struggled with floor spacing last season, at times lacking the shooters necessary to stretch defenses. Chandler thrived last year when catching and shooting from the mid-range, but struggled when he shot off the bounce and when contested. Fortunately for Chandler, he’s already familiar with the Mavs’ “flow” offense and all of the sets they run, as he spent a season with the team just a few years ago. Even better, though, is the effect Nowitzki and Monta Ellis could have on Chandler’s success not only at the rim, but also from the elbows. Chandler should actually fit in pretty well with many of the sets Dallas ran last season with Sam Dalembert at the five.
Dallas ran a lot of plays out of the “Horns” offense last season, a set defined by the shape the players make at the beginning of the play — with the point guard in the middle of the floor, both the off-guard and small forward retreat to either wing or corner while the big men stand at either elbow. There are countless variations of the play, but most commonly what you’ll see is one big man set a ball-screen and the play develops into a pick-and-roll. Nowitzki isn’t a conventional player, however, so Carlisle has tweaked Horns a bit to play more to the German’s strengths. Nowitzki’s presence alone at one elbow creates plenty of open space everywhere else on the floor, which benefits both the shooters in the corners and the other big man — in the case of last season, it was Dalembert; this season, it will be Chandler.
Here’s an example of the way the Knicks commonly generated mid-range looks for Chandler out of Horns.
Raymond Felton makes the first pass to Chandler, hinting that the big man might make an entry pass into the posted-up Carmelo Anthony. However, Chandler waits as Felton uses an Amar’e Stoudemire screen to cut to the baseline and then back up to the top of the key. Horns features plenty of misdirection, which plays into the hands of crafty guards and big men alike.
Felton gets the ball back and immediately has two screens to choose from: one from Stoudemire, and another from J.R. Smith. Meanwhile, Chandler still remains at the elbow, while his defender Ryan Kelly has turned his complete attention away from his man and toward the moving Felton. By now, it’s already clear that Felton is going to use Stoudemire’s screen, which means the Lakers defense will have to converge in the lane in an attempt to stop the drive to the rim.
Felton sucked in Kelly and the rest of the defense with his drive, which left Chandler open by a whopping 10 feet. That’s going to be two points every time.
Dallas ran nearly identical sets last season, both with and without Nowitzki, that created the same types of shots for Dalembert, also a quality mid-range shooter. See below for the beginning of the play.
In this case, Shawn Marion set the ball-screen for Jose Calderon. Zach Randolph, responsible for guarding Dalembert, has sunk off the Haitian big man so much that the Mavs center is going to have an easy, easy jumper once Calderon delivers him the ball.
Calderon attracted all of that attention from the defense and last season he preferred not to shoot on drives. Imagine the type of space Monta Ellis can create on his drives toward the rim. Plays like the one above are deadly because they force the opposing team to make a choice: Do they stop the drive or do they stop the jumpers? Dallas made matters even worse for opponents last season because the Mavs ran sets so early in the shot clock that in many cases the defense wasn’t even able to set itself completely. For example, in the play above, Marc Gasol is guarding Shawn Marion, not Dalembert. Gasol likely would not have defended Calderon’s drive any differently, but the Spaniard has a reputation as one of the best defenders in the league. He might have been able to stunt the play. But that’s where the Mavs’ offense has beaten so many teams time and time again.
Let’s throw Nowitzki into the equation. Below is a Horns set with the German manning one of the elbows.
The play begins with a high screen by Nowitzki. Larkin drives to the left, down the middle of the floor, right at Boris Diaw. The Frenchman will soon have a decision to make: stop Larkin or stop Dalembert, but he can’t do both. This is where Nowitzki’s impact plays in, however. Jeff Ayres is responsible for guarding the German, so instead of hedging against Larkin, forcing the point guard to reset the offense, he immediately sprints back to Dirk. Can’t afford to give the seven-footer an open jump shot. Patty Mills, meanwhile, is already beat. There’s no way he can recover in time to stop Larkin.
Diaw smartly elects to stop Larkin, as a jump shot is more difficult to make than a layup. Dalembert, then, is left completely wide open at the elbow. But notice how closely Ayres is guarding Nowitzki. The German’s court presence alone has turned what could have been a crowded defense into a two-on-two with Larkin and Dalembert vs. Mills and Diaw. That’s a favorable matchup for the offense, and one that will surely benefit Chandler this season.
All of this doesn’t necessarily mean that Chandler will receive these types of looks. Horns sets usually involve one ball-handler, but the Mavs’ starting lineup this season will feature no less than three perimeter players capable off the bounce. There’s no telling what tricks Carlisle will pull out of his bag this season, but Horns will likely be one of them. After all, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and a clean look for Chandler from the elbow is pretty automatic.
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